Tempo Effects on Mortality Rate and Tempo-adjusted Life Expectancy in China

Corresponding author: dong haoyue, dhy0417@126.com

DOI: 10.12201/bmr.202006.00005

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  Abstract: As an important indicator to measure the health level for a population, the life expectancy at birth has always been concerned by researchers from population studies and public health, and is often used as the fundamental index in application. Based on the sixth census data, many researchers believe that life expectancy at birth in China is overestimated, mainly because of underreporting of deaths. However, in the process of mortality decline with the improvement of death conditions, the life expectancy at birth itself might be overestimated by tempo effects which are caused by the delay of death. Taking advantage of the yearly data on death for China from 1994 to 2016, this study investigates that tempo-adjusted life expectancy at birth, through the approach developed by Jonhn Bongaarts and Griffith Feeney. The results indicate that: first, in contrast to conventional life expectancy, tempo-adjusted life expectancy tends to increase more steadily, and both level and its growth rate of life expectancy for women are higher than those for men. Second, the tempo effects of mortality for China fluctuate between 2 and 5 from 1994 to 2016, with an average of 2.5 and above, which is clearly higher than those for European countries and United States. This suggests that the speed of mortality decline in China is much faster. Third, as far as the sixth census concerned, the potential tempo effects might make the conventional life expectancy overestimate the health level in China. The tempo-adjusted life expectancy may be a better measure of the life expectancy of the Chinses population.

  Key words: mortality rate; life expectancy at birth; tempo effect

  Submit time: 28 October 2020

  Copyright: The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted biomedRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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