通讯作者: 董浩月, dhy0417@126.com

DOI：10.12201/bmr.202006.00005

Tempo Effects on Mortality Rate and Tempo-adjusted Life Expectancy in China

• 摘要：平均预期寿命作为衡量人口健康水平的重要指标之一,一直为人口和公共卫生研究者所关注,实际工作中也常被用来作为基础性指标。基于“六普”公布数据,不少学者认为中国的平均预期寿命被高估,且多将此归咎为死亡漏报导致死亡率的低估。但是,在死亡率随着死亡条件不断改善而持续下降的过程中,平均预期寿命也可能因为死亡推迟所导致的进度效应而出现高估。本文采用1994-2016年中国的死亡数据,以John Bongaarts和Griffith Feeney提出的进度调整思路,考察了中国的去进度效应平均预期寿命。结果表明：第一,同样作为时期指标,去进度效应平均预期寿命呈更加平稳增长的趋势,女性的平均预期寿命及其增长速度均高于男性；第二,中国1994-2016年期间平均预期寿命的进度效应在2-5岁之间波动,平均在2.5岁以上,明显高于已有研究所涉及欧美国家的进度效应,这反映出中国死亡率下降速度更快的事实；第三,就“六普”而言,进度效应会使得常规平均预期寿命高估寿命水平,男性、女性和两性合计人口的幅度分别为2.43岁、2.63岁和2.57岁,去进度效应预期寿命或许可以更好地测度中国人口的寿命水平。

  关键词： 死亡率; 平均预期寿命; 进度效应

   

  Abstract: As an important indicator to measure the health level for a population, the life expectancy at birth has always been concerned by researchers from population studies and public health, and is often used as the fundamental index in application. Based on the sixth census data, many researchers believe that life expectancy at birth in China is overestimated, mainly because of underreporting of deaths. However, in the process of mortality decline with the improvement of death conditions, the life expectancy at birth itself might be overestimated by tempo effects which are caused by the delay of death. Taking advantage of the yearly data on death for China from 1994 to 2016, this study investigates that tempo-adjusted life expectancy at birth, through the approach developed by Jonhn Bongaarts and Griffith Feeney. The results indicate that: first, in contrast to conventional life expectancy, tempo-adjusted life expectancy tends to increase more steadily, and both level and its growth rate of life expectancy for women are higher than those for men. Second, the tempo effects of mortality for China fluctuate between 2 and 5 from 1994 to 2016, with an average of 2.5 and above, which is clearly higher than those for European countries and United States. This suggests that the speed of mortality decline in China is much faster. Third, as far as the sixth census concerned, the potential tempo effects might make the conventional life expectancy overestimate the health level in China. The tempo-adjusted life expectancy may be a better measure of the life expectancy of the Chinses population.

  Key words: mortality rate; life expectancy at birth; tempo effect

  提交时间：2020-10-28

  版权声明：作者本人独立拥有该论文的版权，预印本系统仅拥有论文的永久保存权利。任何人未经允许不得重复使用。
• html

• 图表

• 张立龙. 贫困缩短了老年人的预期寿命吗？ ——基于多状态生命表的研究. 2020. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202003.00306

  詹海侠, 胡东, 张文婷, 顾影. 集束化护理模式对乳腺癌改良根治术后患者肩关节功能恢复及生命质量的影响. 2020. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202004.00015

  赫曼, 杜杰, 杨磊, 李斌, 杨毅, 徐时, 柴琛. 鸢尾素在脓毒症大鼠头端延髓腹外侧区的心血管效应. 2020. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202011.00002

  朱笑笑, 钱爱兵. 基于百度指数的乳腺癌防治健康信息网络关注特征分析. 2020. doi: 10.12201/bmr.201906.00001

  曹海霞, 柴荣, 刘宇薇, 郭进京. 国内外图书馆公众健康信息服务比较研究. 2020. doi: 10.12201/bmr.201908.00001

  陈玲, 张红伟, 王春梅. 现代公共文化服务视角的医学智慧图书馆建设研究. 2020. doi: 10.12201/bmr.201911.00001

  芦欣怡, 王亚东. 医疗卫生行业综合监管制度体系构建——基于扎根理论的质性分析. 2021. doi: 10.12201/bmr.201910.00001

  郭一, 江涛, 胡盈盈, 唐光明. 基层医疗卫生机构补偿机制改革绩效考核信息系统设计实践. 2020. doi: 10.12201/bmr.201909.00001

  闫慈, 王鹏, 杨越, 任劲, 吴睿豪, 管音, 张茜. 省级肿瘤大数据中心的规划与建设. 2020. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202009.00002

  雷萌, 罗银波, 汪瓒, 郭千千, 刘军安. 农村基层医务人员获得感与离职意愿的关系研究：以工作满意度为中介. 2021. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202010.00843

• 序号	提交日期	编号	操作
  1	2020-06-14	bmr.202006.00005V1	下载

• 公开评论  匿名评论  仅发给作者 提交评论