The Predictive Value of Serum AMH and Basal Progesterone Levels on Pregnancy Outcomes in Infertile Patients Undergoing Their First IVF/ICSI-ET Cycle

DOI: 10.12201/bmr.202603.00018

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  Abstract: Objective: To investigate the predictive value of serum anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) and basal progesterone (P) levels for pregnancy outcomes in infertile patients undergoing their first cycle of in vitro fertilization(IVF)/intracytoplasmic sperm injection(ICSI)-embryo transfer (ET). Methods: A retrospective cohort study was performed on clinical data of 172 infertile patients who received their first IVF/ICSI treatment at Yichun Maternal and Child Health Hospital from October 2024 to October 2025. Patients were stratified into the pregnancy success group (n = 94) and pregnancy failure group (n = 78) based on the achievement of clinical pregnancy post-assisted reproduction. Baseline clinical characteristics were compared between the two groups. Spearman correlation analysis was employed to examine the correlation between AMH and basal P. Multivariate binary Logistic regression was conducted to identify independent factors influencing pregnancy outcomes. Employing receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to assess the predictive value of AMH and basal P regarding pregnancy outcomes. Results: The pregnancy success group exhibited significantly higher levels of AMH and basal P than the pregnancy failure group (both P < 0.05). No statistically significant differences were observed between the two groups in terms of age, duration of infertility, type of infertility, body mass index (BMI), gravidity, parity, basal estradiol, basal luteinizing hormone, basal follicle-stimulating hormone, basal prolactin, basal testosterone, initial gonadotropin (Gn) dose, total Gn dose, total Gn administration days, estradiol on trigger day, luteinizing hormone on trigger day, progesterone on trigger day, fertilization method, embryo transfer mode, ovulation induction protocol, or type of transferred embryo (all P > 0.05). Spearman correlation analysis revealed no significant correlation between AMH and basal P (ρ = 0.030, P = 0.704). Multivariate Logistic regression model identified AMH and basal P levels as independent factors associated with pregnancy outcomes(OR = 1.170, 2.642; both P < 0.05). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for AMH and basal P in predicting pregnancy outcomes was 0.608 and 0.597, respectively (both P < 0.05), while the combined detection yielded an AUC of 0.656 (P < 0.05). Conclusion: Serum AMH and basal P are independent influencing factors for pregnancy outcomes in infertile patients undergoing their first IVF/ICSI-ET cycle, and can serve as potential reference indicators for predicting pregnancy outcomes.

  Key words: Infertility; In vitro fertilization-embryo transfer; Anti-Müllerian hormone; Basal progesterone; Pregnancy outcome

  Submit time: 7 March 2026

  Copyright: The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted biomedRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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