Epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend prediction of HFMD in Liangqing District, Nanning,2012-2023

Corresponding author: jiangjunjun, 765221811@qq.com

DOI: 10.12201/bmr.202504.00006

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  Abstract: 【】 Objective To analyze the epidemiological and etiological characteristics of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Nanning City, Liangqing District from 2012 to 2023, aiming to provide scientific for effective prevention and control of HFMD . Methods? Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to describe the three distribution characteristics of HFMD,and the SARIMA model was used to predict the incidence trend of HFMD. Results From 2012 to 2023, a total of 19175 cases of HFMD were reported in Nanning City, Liangqing District., with an average reported incidence rate of 387.26 /100,000. The incidence of HFMD in different years had a statistical difference(?2= 6085.585, P<0.01). The highest proportion of reported cases was in urban areas (79.40%). The onset time was mainly concentrated from April to October (88.08%).The incidence was high in the population from 6 months to 5 years old(94.75%),and the majority were scattered children and children in kindergartens (97.38%). A total of 588 laboratory-diagnosed cases were reported from 2012 to2023, with the highest detection rate of other enteroviruses(69.56%)and a relatively low detection rate of EV7l (11.90%).Based on the optimal S ARIMA(2,0,0)(0,0,2)12 model analysis results, a projected decrease in annual incidence rates is expected for both 2024 and 2025compared to that of 2023. Conclusion The incidence of HFMD in Liangqing District, Nanning, is notably high, particularly among children from 6 months to 5 years old. It is recommended to enhance epidemic monitoring, continue pathogen surveillance, improve public education, and raise awareness of disease prevention among the public..

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  Submit time: 4 April 2025

  Copyright: The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted biomedRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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