通讯作者: 蒋俊俊, 765221811@qq.com

DOI：10.12201/bmr.202504.00006

Epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend prediction of HFMD in Liangqing District, Nanning,2012-2023

• 摘要：【】目的 分析2012-2023年南宁市良庆区手足口病流行病学及病原学特征,为有效防控手足口病疫情提供科学依据。 方法 采用描述性流行病学方法描述手足口病的三间分布特征,利用SARIMA模型对手足口病发病趋势进行预测。结果 2012-2023年南宁市良庆区累计报告手足口病19715例,平均报告发病率为387.26/10万,不同年份发病率差异具有统计学(?2=6085.585,P<0.01)。城区累计报告病例最多(79.40%)。发病时间主要集中在4-10月(88.08%),发病人群以6月龄到5岁高发(94.75%),以散居儿童、托幼机构儿童为主(97.38%)。2012-2023年累计报告实验室诊断病例588例,以其他肠道病毒检出率最高(69.56%),EV71检出率相对较低(11.90%)。SARIMA(2,0,0)(0,0,2)12为最优预测模型,预测结果显示,2024年、2025年南宁市良庆区手足口病发病水平较2023年下降。结论 南宁市良庆区手足口病发病率较高,以6月龄-5岁以下儿童高发。建议加强疫情监测力度,持续开展病原学监测工作,增强宣教力度,提高群众防病意识。

   

  Abstract: 【】 Objective To analyze the epidemiological and etiological characteristics of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Nanning City, Liangqing District from 2012 to 2023, aiming to provide scientific for effective prevention and control of HFMD . Methods? Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to describe the three distribution characteristics of HFMD,and the SARIMA model was used to predict the incidence trend of HFMD. Results From 2012 to 2023, a total of 19175 cases of HFMD were reported in Nanning City, Liangqing District., with an average reported incidence rate of 387.26 /100,000. The incidence of HFMD in different years had a statistical difference(?2= 6085.585, P<0.01). The highest proportion of reported cases was in urban areas (79.40%). The onset time was mainly concentrated from April to October (88.08%).The incidence was high in the population from 6 months to 5 years old(94.75%),and the majority were scattered children and children in kindergartens (97.38%). A total of 588 laboratory-diagnosed cases were reported from 2012 to2023, with the highest detection rate of other enteroviruses(69.56%)and a relatively low detection rate of EV7l (11.90%).Based on the optimal S ARIMA(2,0,0)(0,0,2)12 model analysis results, a projected decrease in annual incidence rates is expected for both 2024 and 2025compared to that of 2023. Conclusion The incidence of HFMD in Liangqing District, Nanning, is notably high, particularly among children from 6 months to 5 years old. It is recommended to enhance epidemic monitoring, continue pathogen surveillance, improve public education, and raise awareness of disease prevention among the public..

  提交时间：2025-04-04

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• 序号	提交日期	编号	操作
  1	2025-03-04	10.12201/bmr.202504.00006V1	下载

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