Measurement of the funding burden of long-term care insurance funds --Comparative analysis based on 8 LTC insurance pilot regions

Corresponding author: yanghongyan, yhyhyang@163.com

DOI: 10.12201/bmr.202306.00010

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  Abstract: We draw on macro data and micro data , build Markov model to predict the size of the disabled elderly from 2021 to 2030, and reduce the error rate of the existing prediction values in the context of Chinas actual situation. Next, we measure the financing burden of Long-Term Care, and explore the improvements in funding options. We found that the size of the severely disabled elderly in the same period from 2021 to 2030 is calibrated to increase by 5%-7%, the expenditure pressure rises by 6%, and the emergence of the under-income node is advanced by 1-2 years. In response to this situation, it is suggested that the Beijing and Kaifeng programs need to set dynamic funding growth rates, and the Nanning and Fuzhou programs which are based on Social Health Insurance Contribution Base consider adjusting the funding ratio.

  Key words: Long-term care insurance; financing burden; measurement; comparative analysis

  Submit time: 28 June 2023

  Copyright: The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted biomedRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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  1	2023-03-13	bmr.202306.00010V1	Download

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