Analysis of the disease burden and future trends of Staphylococcus aureus lower respiratory tract infections in China from 1990 to 2021

Corresponding author: XIAO Qiang, 15897367806@163.com

DOI: 10.12201/bmr.202511.00079

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  Abstract: Abstract: Objective To analyze the disease burden and future trends of Staphylococcus aureus lower respiratory infections (LRI) in China from 1990 to 2021, informing targeted prevention strategies. Methods Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, including deaths, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALY). Joinpoint regression analyzed temporal trends, and ARIMA models projected future burden. Results From 1990 to 2021, ASMR declined from 6.264 to 2.992 per 100,000 (Average annual percentage change, AAPC=-2.43%), and Age-standardized DALYs rate(ASDR) decreased from 228.287 to 56.139 per 100,000 (AAPC=-4.50%). Disease burden showed a U-shaped age distribution, with the highest rates in children <5 years and adults ≥50 years. Males had higher burden than females (2021 ASMR: 4.454 vs. 2.174 per 100,000). Decomposition analysis indicated aging contributed to 552.67% of increased deaths. Projections suggested a potential rise in ASMR/ASDR by 2041. Conclusion Despite overall decline, aging population and other factors might reverse progress, necessitating enhanced prevention and control management for key populations.

  Key words: Staphylococcus aureus; lower respiratory infections; disease burden; mortality; disability-adjusted life years

  Submit time: 24 November 2025

  Copyright: The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted biomedRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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