Predictive modeling of IVF-ET clinical pregnancy in patients with secondary infertility

Corresponding author: ZHANG Jing, 147548574@qq.com

DOI: 10.12201/bmr.202506.00074

•  

  Abstract: Objective: To analyze the factors influencing whether clinical pregnancy is successful or not in secondary infertility patients involved in in vitro fertilization and embryotransfer (IVF-ET), and to predict individual risk. Methods: The embryo transfer files of 235 secondary infertility patients who underwent IVF-ET in Urumqi Maternal and Child Health Hospital from January 2020 to December 2023 were retrospectively analyzed, and divided into the successful embryo transfer group (n=109) and the failed embryo transfer group (n=126) according to whether they had a successful clinical pregnancy. Comparing the general data, ovulation promotion data and embryo data of the two groups, we performed multifactorial logistic regression analysis (forward LR method) to screen out statistically significant indicators, based on which we constructed the prediction model of the nomogram, and plotted the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve, the calibration curve, and the decision analysis (DCA) curve. （ROC curves, calibration curves and decision analysis (DCA) curves were plotted to verify the differentiation, accuracy and clinical utility of the model. Results: For secondary infertility patients involved in IVF-ET, multifactorial logistic regression showed that female age overweight and obesitywere risk factors for clinical pregnancy failure, and AMH and total Gn were the clinical pregnancy outcomes Protective factors. On this basis, the nomogram prediction model was successfully constructed, and the differentiation, accuracy and clinical utility were verified. Conclusion: For secondary infertile patients involved in IVF-ET, female age, overweight and obesity, AMH and total Gn are influential factors for clinical pregnancy. The constructed nomogram prediction model can be used to predict whether a successful clinical pregnancy can be achieved in patients with primary infertility participating in IVF-ET, pending the accumulation of more samples and variables to update and adjust the model in the future.

  Key words: Secondary infertility; IVF-ET; clinical pregnancy; nomogram; prediction

  Submit time: 24 June 2025

  Copyright: The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted biomedRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
• html

• 图表

• Construction and application evaluation of risk prediction model and nomogram for shivering during cesarean sectio. 2025. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202501.00053

  chen lin lin, zhu guang, jin lin xi. Predictive of Three-dimensional Ultrasonography for Pregnancy Outcome after Uterine Adhesion Surgery. 2024. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202407.00010

  Zhang Ting. . 2024. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202412.00088

  YANG Di, HE Jing, YAN Xiao.. A case of Systemic lupus erythematosus secondary to thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura combined with pregnancy and review of the literature. 2025. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202504.00053

  Ma Wei-Rong, Chen Jie, Yang Yin-Qian, Tan Yong. Study on the rules of medication in treating female Infertility in Jiyin Gangmu·Qiuzimen. 2024. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202411.00067

  WU Xiayang. Establishment and verification of a risk prediction model for neonatal sepsis in premature infants. 2025. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202505.00013

  zhang hai qin, geng ling, li shun ping, li chao fan. Research on Infertility Health Expenditure Financing Policy under the Background of Active Fertility Support: Based on international comparison. 2023. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202301.00009

  SHU Wenxiu, LUO Liufei, Tong Jiaqi, Le Jing. Construction and effect evaluation of risk prediction model for grades 3-4 myeloma bone disease in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma patients. 2024. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202410.00057

  ZHANG Limi, YU Xi, WANG Baishi, LIU Jingli. The value of serological indexes and vaginal color Doppler ultrasound in differential diagnosis of early ectopic pregnancy and threatened abortion. 2024. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202408.00036

  HE Lanlan, LI Danyang, SHEN Li, WU Zhonghua, ZHANG Jun, YE Yongqiang. Construction and validation of nomogram model for prolonged length of stay in patients with acute cerebral infarction based on total cerebral small vessel disease burden scores. 2025. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202501.00008

• ID	Submit time	Number	Download
  1	2025-05-01	bmr.202506.00074V1	Download

• Public  Anonymous  To author only Submit Comments